January 2024: Parliamentary elections in Taiwan exacerbate risk scenarios

While China regards Taiwan as a "renegade province" that must be reunited with the motherland at all costs, the democratically governed island also plays a very important role from the US perspective. This applies in particular to Taiwan's strategic location in the South China Sea, but also to the island state's role as the world's most important supplier of high-end computer chips. Both China and the USA are playing with high stakes, which is why neither party is expected to give in for the time being.

The further course of the Taiwan conflict could be decided by the outcome of the election on January 13: Should a candidate critical of China win, China could activate its plans for military intervention in the near future. In the worst case scenario, this could soon lead to a genuine geopolitical crisis (or war), with extremely high risks for the global economy. 

More on the complex interrelationships in the German Cognitive Briefing "Brennpunkt Taiwan – Akutes Eskalationsrisiko durch Chinas ‚Neue Weltordnung‘" in the download section of this page.