In focus: The raw materials trap – How China is slowing down the West in future technologies

The demand for rare earths and other strategic raw materials is growing rapidly worldwide. Over the next ten years, demand is expected to increase many times over compared to today's levels. For magnetic rare earths, demand is forecast to grow by 125% between 2023 and 2035. For lithium, which is still essential for the expansion of electromobility, an increase of 475% is even expected. 

Depending on the metal, China dominates up to 90% of global supply chains, mostly from extraction to processing. For example, 98% of all EU imports of high-performance magnets along the entire value chain come from China. However, China is now increasingly using this monopoly position as a weapon in the context of geopolitical conflicts and forced trade wars. 

This is because China is now deliberately slowing down Western technology and armament projects through targeted export restrictions! This shortage of raw materials is increasingly jeopardizing the expansion of key technologies such as e-mobility and wind power, but also modern defense systems. The US is suffering the most from this, and has therefore had to “back down” several times in its tariff war against China.

But Europe is also already caught in a “strategic raw materials trap”, making itself politically and economically vulnerable to blackmail. Ambitious EU projects for climate transformation and improved defense capabilities are already being significantly hampered as a result. 

This is exactly the scenario that the FERI Cognitive Finance Institute clearly warned about back in 2022: the availability of strategic metals is increasingly determined by geopolitical factors – Europe and the West must now learn a new lesson very quickly!

Our analysis provides the background to this: “Hightech-Metalle und Seltene Erden. Akute Rohstoff-Risiken für Europas Zukunft”. It is available for download in German on this page.